Most commodities will suffer a bearish second quarter according to Wang Tao, technical analyst at Reuters Singapore. Included in this outlook is gold, metals and grains which are expected either to resume a downward trend or complete recent rebounds.
The recent rise of the US 10-year Treasury yield and the prospect of a sustained rally beyond 3% may lack conviction, according to Mike Sacchitello of Stone McCarthy Research Associates. The US financials/utilities ratio, historically a reliable indicator, has failed to support the rally.
The best indicator for US stock direction at present is the 10-year Treasury, says Ari Wald at Oppenheimer & Co.
Technical analysis platform, Updata, has announced a partnership with data provider, Global Financial Data. The GFD database includes commodities, economics data, FX, equities and fixed income data with stock data on 50,000 securities going back to 1789.
The Eurostoxx 50 of the largest cap stocks are outperforming the DJ Stoxx 600 but the next largest 150 are not, which is usually suggestive of a market top, according to Riccardo Ronco of Aviate Global.
The 30 year yield of the German Bund is in overbought territory with the bigger picture suggesting still lower yields to come, says Chris Williams at Newedge. This view is further supported by the failure of the 30yr yield at the 2.527 level, and a continued weakness in stocks.
The euro has once again failed to break through the long term trendline that began in 2008 suggesting a bearish outlook for the currency, says Max Knudsen of ADS Securities. As such, the outlook remains negative whilst the currency remains below 1.3900.
top now seems to be in place for USD/RUB after having been heavily bought since January and the Ukraine crisis, says Chris Williams at Newedge. Having tested its 2009 high at 36.34 on a weekly basis, the ruble should target 34.00 over the next two months.
US-based research house, The Technical Analysis Group, presents its latest view on the 10-year Treasury including in-depth analysis of the medium and longer-term outlooks.
Hope has been replaced by fear with the US stock market since the start of the Ukraine crisis, says Walter Zimmermann of United-ICAP. This puts into doubt the previous target of 1923 for the S&P500 and opens the possibility of the end of the current bull market that begin at 666 in March 2009.