The outlook for the S&P500 is still uncertain despite the recent rally and the commodities super cycle remains intact judging by the Bloomberg Commodities Index trend from 1999. Peter Lee of UBS also discusses the dollar and US 10-year Treasuries.
Andrew Gebhardt of Foxcurve discusses the outlook for euribor, eurodollar and short sterling 2015-17 futures contracts, including entry levels, targets and stop-loss levels.
US Treasury yields look set to rally going forward but German yields continue to struggle, says Chris Williams at Societe Generale. For the US 10-year, 2.69 needs to be breached for further gains but for the 10-yr Bund low volume and the failure of recent rallies means the all-time low of 1.12 may be tested.
Bearish divergence in sentiment and momentum for the S&P500 that now exists is only seen in bubble markets, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP. He also gives his views for the Shanghai index, US Treasuries, FX, and a wide range of commodity markets.
Cable faces resistance to further gains despite touching a year high at 1.7179 last week, say analysts at ADS Securities. A short-term overbought scenario now exists that could see the pound test 1.7000/15. On the upside, a move through the 1.7177 would still see gains limited in the near-term.
A triangle breakout will bring a downward move to $1100 for gold before a countertrend rally is seen, says Tarun Dang at Trendwise. A decline will also form a 5th wave of an Elliott Wave pattern thereby reinforcing the conviction of a possible downward break.
The recent bear market correction in EURUSD hit strong resistance at 1.3700 thereby strengthening the case for a more decisive down move to come, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP. A decisive move below 1.3497 will now pave the way for a significant decline.
Bollinger bands show a market extreme for the S&P, US Treasury direction lacks conviction and EUR/USD still needs a key break to confirm a top, says Peter Lee at UBS.
The long-term downtrend in the Gold Miners ETF price ended this year but a genuine reversal in price has yet to be confirmed, says Andy Dodd at Louis Capital Markets. A breaking of the neckline of a head-and-shoulders reversal is required first. After this 35.00 is the target.
The current low level of the VIX suggests that stocks are not at a top as is being widely claimed, says Ari Wald at Oppenheimer. Previous declines in the VIX below 15 have usually been followed by periods of above average performance in the S&P500.