The 1.4000 level remains a significant barrier to further upward progress for the euro, say analysts at research firm 4Cast. With the rise since April 2013 lacking conviction, a downside move is forecast for Q2 into Q3.
The euro has once again failed to break through the long term trendline that began in 2008 suggesting a bearish outlook for the currency, says Max Knudsen of ADS Securities. As such, the outlook remains negative whilst the currency remains below 1.3900.
top now seems to be in place for USD/RUB after having been heavily bought since January and the Ukraine crisis, says Chris Williams at Newedge. Having tested its 2009 high at 36.34 on a weekly basis, the ruble should target 34.00 over the next two months.
A close above 1.3818 triggers a bullish long-term trend reversal on a weekly basis for euro/dollar, according to George Davis at RBC Capital Markets.
GBPUSD tested a key resistance level at 1.6747 last week but failed to break it, forming a bearish shooting star pattern in the process, says Andy Dodd at Louis Capital Markets. A break below 1.6618 could the pave the way to 1.6389.
The South African rand is oversold against the major currencies and due for a major correction throughout 2014, according to Chris Williams at Newedge.
USD/JPY has peaked in the medium-term according to Nikolas Baptiste of the Technical Analysis Group (TAG). The recent decline to the current level they describe as the ‘doorway to the downside’ at 100.75 with the more recent bounce merely a short-term correction.
USD/CAD has already triggered significant trend reversals over the short, medium and long-term, according to George Davis of RBC Capital Markets.
Safe haven flows into the Yen after the EM sell-off means 101.65 is the level to watch for USD/JPY, says George Davis at RBC Capital Markets. Below this the corrective downtrend is resumed. A close above the 104.36 trendline will end this downtrend.
USD/ARS looks to be taking some time to consolidate the parabolic move near 8.00 but should look to top at around 8.25/55 over the next one to two months, says Rob Zukowski at 4Cast. A reversal should then see the market return to where it started the sell-off at 6.80/7.00.