The recent rise of the US 10-year Treasury yield and the prospect of a sustained rally beyond 3% may lack conviction, according to Mike Sacchitello of Stone McCarthy Research Associates. The US financials/utilities ratio, historically a reliable indicator, has failed to support the rally.
The 30 year yield of the German Bund is in overbought territory with the bigger picture suggesting still lower yields to come, says Chris Williams at Newedge. This view is further supported by the failure of the 30yr yield at the 2.527 level, and a continued weakness in stocks.
US-based research house, The Technical Analysis Group, presents its latest view on the 10-year Treasury including in-depth analysis of the medium and longer-term outlooks.
US Treasurys are oversold following the crisis in Ukraine as the situation is likely to find a quick resolution, says Chris Williams at Newedge.
Short-term changes in STIR strips are gaining interest across the sterling, dollar and euro futures. Finex present their technical and Market Profile based assessment of near-term moves.
A break above 3.97% appears to be on the cards for the 30Yr Treasury, according to Cyril Berkouk of Trading Central, as technical factors compound to suggests a possible target of 4.67%
Clive Lambert of FuturesTechs gives his in-depth short and longer-term outlook for bund futures for 2014. This includes analysis of the potential formation of a significant head and shoulders pattern.
Michael Sacchitello of Stone & McCarthy Research explains how survey data, the COT report and chart analysis explains how extreme bearish sentiment is set to interrupt the long-term bearish outlook for US Treasuries.
Clive Lambert, analyst at FuturesTechs, writes that because the recent decline in the 10-year US Treasury Note was on very low volume, this suggests a move back to beyond 128 which also coincides with a major Fibonacci level.