A significant rally in yields going into 2015 is looking increasingly likely, according to Chris Williams, Senior Broker at Newedge.
Despite short-term downwards pressure over the next few weeks the Bund is likely to move sideways in the longer term, says BNP Paribas Personal Investors.
US interest rates are going much higher, says Walter Zimmermann, Senior Technical Analyst at United-ICAP.
The spread between Greek and German 10 year bond yields is widening and has achieved a new multi-month high. Riccardo Ronco, Head of Technical Analysis at Aviate Global, thinks this may mean troubling times ahead.
Yesterday saw some of the highest volumes in equity and bond markets. Chris Williams, Senior Broker at Newedge, says this usually signals a change in direction.
The confirmation of a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern in the 10 year T-note tells us we should expect more downside pressure in the coming months, according to BNP Paribas Personal Investors.
European bond yields continued to fall last week although the outlook for individual markets remains uncertain, says Chris Williams at Soc Gen. Some RSI readings, such as Germany 30 yr, suggest some yield charts may be oversold although the 10yr may be subject to more downside.
Spain, Italy and Portugal bond yields are too low and are poised to top, says Chris Williams at Societe Generale. The RSI for each market are showing extreme overbought conditions with significant trendlines also about to be tested.
Sentiment measured by the Commitment of Traders Report suggests that a major top (yield low) in the 10-Yr Treasury is not on the cards. says Mike Sacchitello at Stone & McCarthy. This is because there is no significant contrarian signal of an extreme in the large speculators less commercial hedgers.
The close correlation between the small cap/S&P ratio and 10-year US Treasuries suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield could fall below 2.40%, says Mike Sacchitello at Stone and McCarthy. This comes after last week’s decline in small caps stocks following fears of excessive valuations.