Most commodities will suffer a bearish second quarter according to Wang Tao, technical analyst at Reuters Singapore. Included in this outlook is gold, metals and grains which are expected either to resume a downward trend or complete recent rebounds.
Commodities & Energy
The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish with a rebound from the recent bearish leg targeting 1361 and then possibly 1434, says Maxime Veimont at BNP Paribas.
Although the selling of gold has repeatedly stalled around the $1200 level over the past 12 months, the break above 1319.50 should confirm a bullish outlook this week, says Max Knudsen of ADS Securities.
After a 2 and a half year consolidation, it looks like precious metals have entered into a bottoming process, says Cyril Berkouk of Trading Central. Technical indicators are showing reversal signs while a bullish pattern is taking shape.
Buying gold stocks is preferable to buying gold itself, says Ari Wald of Wolfe Research. Exhaustion in the gold/NYSE gold miners index means the ratio has now moved in favour of stocks. This signal is enhanced by bearish divergence in the weekly RSI.
Gold should see improved sentiment and a slowdown in selling during Q1, according to Max Knudsen of ADS Securities. This year has seen the best period of buying in 15 months with the potential for prices to reach $1300. Knudsen also discusses rising sentiment in the platinum market.
Most commodities are likely to enjoy a positive first quarter according to Wang Tao, technical analyst at Reuters in Singapore. His latest report for Q1 2014 covering metals, oil and agriculturals paints a broadly positive technical outlook. Read report >>
Walter Zimmermann of ICAP says that despite unexciting price action for coal over the past year or so, a large head and shoulders bottom pattern may now be forming. This will target coal at the 71.50 to 72.00 range as long as the neckline is breached decisively.
Wang Tao, technical market analyst for commodities at Reuters Singapore, gives his comprehensive commodities outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013. His market coverage includes oil, base and precious metals, and agriculturals.
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