Despite recent attempts to break above key resistance (leaving a Shooting Star candlestick on the 30 year Chart), the long-term downtrend for US yields remains intact, says Andy Dodd, Head of Technical Research at Louis Capital Markets.

Looking at the monthly Chart of US 10 year yields, Dodd points out that a move above 3.0707 – a level which has capped rallies all year – would need to be broken to threaten the downtrend that dates back to 1981. Dodd says the picture is similar for US 30 year yields, though in this case a clean break of 3.2546 is required to confirm a bullish reversal for yields (see Chart 3).

See Chart 1 of US 30yr daily / Chart 2 of US 10yr monthly / Chart 3 of US 30yr monthly