The US trade war means that commodity markets are no longer behaving typically as an homogeneous group but have decoupled, according to Robin Griffiths at The ECU Group. The TR CCI Commodity Index, after testing the 437 level in June (50% retracement from the 2010 high), has since fallen back with 378 providing the next major support level.
However, the performance of different commodity markets varies widely. Although Brent crude has stuttered, the uptrend remains intact, says Griffiths. Key resistance remains at $75. Metals on the other hand have suffered demand fears, especially copper and gold with the latter threatening to test key support at $1200. Meanwhile, agriculturals have suffered most with soya beans, coffee and sugar performing worst of all this year.