Cyclical forces will push US equities downwards for the rest of 2016 and into 2017, says Ron William, Technical Strategist at ECU Group in London.

William points to the confluence of three cycles which will make the rest of 2016 and early 2017 difficult for equity markets, namely: i) The Decennial Cycle where equity markets traditionally suffer their biggest drop in year 6 to 7 of the decade; ii) The US Presidential Cycle which says, among other things, that if the election is at the end of a two-term president it leads to an average equity market underperformance of -13.8%; and iii) The ‘Sell in May’ pattern which William says should be more correctly called ‘Sell in June’ since the biggest drops tend to occur in late June / early July.

As such, William thinks that “bearish forces are clawing at the edge of the stage” and – given the recovery from 2009 was particularly strong (184% in 74 months) – he expects the ensuing bear market will likely be a powerful one.

Read the full report / watch ‘Sell in June’ video (from 8 June).