The 15 year commodity cycle

The global commodity cycle means a low every 15 years with the next one due in October 2016, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP.

Set against the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index, individual commodities will also bottom before and after the index. Based on previous lows in 1971, 1986, and 2001, individual markets bottomed up to 18 months before or after the index. Because of this time window, most 15 year lows have tended to be double bottoms with the lows some 5 years or so apart. This suggests that once the first low is touched, it can be many years before the next bull market begins again.

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