The positive affect of seasonality on crude oil will not be enough to kick-start a sustained long-term uptrend, according to Ari Wald, Technical Analyst at Oppenheimer, who recommends selling into seasonal summer strength.
Wald thinks that WTI Crude Oil will be unlikely to break through formidable resistance at the $65 to $67 level and once the positive affect of seasonality fades in September, WTI will resume its bearish long-term trend. See chart.
Wald is equally pessimistic for gold. He sees downside risk to around $1000 over the longer-term (the 2008 and 2009 high) and recommends selling rallies. See chart.