Andrew Gebhardt of Foxcurve discusses the outlook for euribor, eurodollar and short sterling 2015-17 futures contracts, including entry levels, targets and stop-loss levels.
US Treasury yields look set to rally going forward but German yields continue to struggle, says Chris Williams at Societe Generale. For the US 10-year, 2.69 needs to be breached for further gains but for the 10-yr Bund low volume and the failure of recent rallies means the all-time low of 1.12 may be tested.
Bearish divergence in sentiment and momentum for the S&P500 that now exists is only seen in bubble markets, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP. He also gives his views for the Shanghai index, US Treasuries, FX, and a wide range of commodity markets.
Cable faces resistance to further gains despite touching a year high at 1.7179 last week, say analysts at ADS Securities. A short-term overbought scenario now exists that could see the pound test 1.7000/15. On the upside, a move through the 1.7177 would still see gains limited in the near-term.
A triangle breakout will bring a downward move to $1100 for gold before a countertrend rally is seen, says Tarun Dang at Trendwise. A decline will also form a 5th wave of an Elliott Wave pattern thereby reinforcing the conviction of a possible downward break.
The recent bear market correction in EURUSD hit strong resistance at 1.3700 thereby strengthening the case for a more decisive down move to come, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP. A decisive move below 1.3497 will now pave the way for a significant decline.
Bollinger bands show a market extreme for the S&P, US Treasury direction lacks conviction and EUR/USD still needs a key break to confirm a top, says Peter Lee at UBS.
The long-term downtrend in the Gold Miners ETF price ended this year but a genuine reversal in price has yet to be confirmed, says Andy Dodd at Louis Capital Markets. A breaking of the neckline of a head-and-shoulders reversal is required first. After this 35.00 is the target.
The current low level of the VIX suggests that stocks are not at a top as is being widely claimed, says Ari Wald at Oppenheimer. Previous declines in the VIX below 15 have usually been followed by periods of above average performance in the S&P500.