Short-term interest rate futures outlook
Andrew Gebhardt of Foxcurve discusses the outlook for euribor, eurodollar and short sterling 2015-17 futures contracts, including entry levels, targets and stop-loss levels.
July 2014
US Treasury yields poised for rally
US Treasury yields look set to rally going forward but German yields continue to struggle, says Chris Williams at Societe Generale. For the US 10-year, 2.69 needs to be breached for further gains but for the 10-yr Bund low volume and the failure of recent rallies means the all-time low of 1.12 may be tested.
S&P500 in ‘bubble’ scenario
Bearish divergence in sentiment and momentum for the S&P500 that now exists is only seen in bubble markets, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP. He also gives his views for the Shanghai index, US Treasuries, FX, and a wide range of commodity markets.
GBPUSD faces resistance to further gains
Cable faces resistance to further gains despite touching a year high at 1.7179 last week, say analysts at ADS Securities. A short-term overbought scenario now exists that could see the pound test 1.7000/15. On the upside, a move through the 1.7177 would still see gains limited in the near-term.
Gold to move to $1100 before rally
A triangle breakout will bring a downward move to $1100 for gold before a countertrend rally is seen, says Tarun Dang at Trendwise. A decline will also form a 5th wave of an Elliott Wave pattern thereby reinforcing the conviction of a possible downward break.
Bearish case for EUR strengthens below 1.3497
The recent bear market correction in EURUSD hit strong resistance at 1.3700 thereby strengthening the case for a more decisive down move to come, says Walter Zimmermann at United-ICAP. A decisive move below 1.3497 will now pave the way for a significant decline.
Mixed outlook for US Treasuries
& EURUSD top awaits confirmation
Bollinger bands show a market extreme for the S&P, US Treasury direction lacks conviction and EUR/USD still needs a key break to confirm a top, says Peter Lee at UBS.
Gold Miners ETF reversal to be confirmed
The long-term downtrend in the Gold Miners ETF price ended this year but a genuine reversal in price has yet to be confirmed, says Andy Dodd at Louis Capital Markets. A breaking of the neckline of a head-and-shoulders reversal is required first. After this 35.00 is the target.
Low VIX suggests no top in stocks
The current low level of the VIX suggests that stocks are not at a top as is being widely claimed, says Ari Wald at Oppenheimer. Previous declines in the VIX below 15 have usually been followed by periods of above average performance in the S&P500.