The chart of the current IPO market resembles a pre-dotcom crash scenario for stocks, says Edward Loef at Loef Technical Analysis. When compared with Nasdaq chart of 1999, if history is to repeat itself then this would be a powerful warning signal for stocks.
An oversold Brazilian Real is set for a bounce although the longer-term outlook remains bearish, says George Davis at RBC Capital Markets. Support at 2.1832 and 2.2000 is in place after the major trend reversal below 2.2692 in March but resistance at 2.2646-2.2886 will present selling opportunities.
Indian stocks continue to climb despite rising oil prices thereby continuing a 25 year trend, says Tarun Dang at Trendwise Capital Management. A positive price correlation between Brent crude and the CNX Nifty appears to contradict the view that higher oil prices are negative for stocks.
Yann Cordier, portfolio manager at AXA Investment Managers explains how a relative strength strategy can be applied to sector analysis for the DJ STOXX 600 index.
Peter Lee at UBS presents individual technical analysis of the current most interesting US stocks. Included is bullish medium-term outlooks for Apple and Boeing, while Google continues to enjoy support after this year’s early dip.
The US 10-year Treasury yield needs to break 2.66% and 2.75% in order to confirm a reversal of this year’s downside, but this is the most likely outcome for the months ahead, say analysts at 4Cast. The Nikkei should also move higher even eventually targeting the 2055/2007 top at 18000 and above further on.
The outlook for US and European stock markets remains bullish as their upward trends remain intact, says Maxine Viemont of BNP Paribas. Meanwhile, Brent crude has now broken out of its consolidation phase and targets 119-127, but the euro remains under pressure with a downside target of 1.2750.
The interruption of a broadening top pattern in the S&P500 means that further gains are likely for the index in the months ahead, says Peter Lee at UBS. He also discusses if the super bull cycle in commodities has really ended and the continued bearish outlook for EURUSD.
A failed key reversal day last week continues the bearish stance for the euro following the completed double top earlier in the year. According to George Davis at RBC Capital Markets, a close below 1.3484 would signal a shift in sentiment and open the way for a decline to 1.3296.
Divergence between the S&P500 and the retail sector within it is a red flag that the market may be nearing a top, says Riccardo Ronco at Aviate Global. Although the trend in the overall market remains bullish for the present, the 52-week % spread of retail/S&P has fallen sharply since the start of the year.