The uptrend in the S&P500 should continue into Q1 although optimist sentiment data increases the risk of an intermediate 6-8% pullback, says Ari Wald at Wolfe Research. Any correction should be a buying opportunity as there are currently no signs of a market top.
Michael Sacchitello of Stone & McCarthy Research explains how survey data, the COT report and chart analysis explains how extreme bearish sentiment is set to interrupt the long-term bearish outlook for US Treasuries.
Wiley has published a new book on mathematics for the financial markets. Its author, Alain Ruttiens, founder and asset manager of Luxembourg-based hedge fund Neuron sarl, says his aim was to deliver a sophisticated ‘first entry’ book.
Although the equity bull trend remains intact, it is beginning to look a bit long in the tooth, says Robin Griffiths of Investment Research of Cambridge and ECU Group. His World Investment Strategy for January 2014 also includes detailed analysis of bonds, commodities, and FX.
Walter Zimmermann at ICAP in the US presents a report on long-term market cycles for the US dollar, Euro, Dow, gold, and commodities indices. Included is Zimmermann’s analysis of the US stock market index which sees in a low in the Dow every 7.5 years, the next one being due in 2016.
Finex of London has launched a platform for position taking in the fixed income market based on technical trading signals. Featuring real-time buy, sell and stop-loss levels, initially for the 10-year bund market, the platform also contains research for gilts, bobls, STIR and FX.
Although gains in the S&P500 are becoming more selective in terms of individual stocks, this is not sufficient to indicate we are in the final stages of the bull market, says Paul Desmond of Lowry Research. Read more…
Most commodities are likely to enjoy a positive first quarter according to Wang Tao, technical analyst at Reuters in Singapore. His latest report for Q1 2014 covering metals, oil and agriculturals paints a broadly positive technical outlook. Read report >>
1.0738 is the next key level to watch for the Canadian dollar, according to George Davis at RBC Capital Markets, following last year’s break above the 2010 quintuple top at 1.0679. With the current uptrend still in place, the 2010 high of 1.0854 is also a major resistance level to watch.
January averages a return of 0.5% for the FTSE 100 ranking it 9th out of the year according to The Stock Market Almanac, compiled by Jeff Hirsch. January has risen 59% of all years since 1984 although it also the most inconsistent month in terms of performance, declining significantly since 2000. Moreover, the second week of January is the worst performing week of the year for the FTSE 100 typically losing 0.5%, and rising only 28% of the years since 1984.