USD/CAD: The party is over
USD/CAD has already triggered significant trend reversals over the short, medium and long-term, according to George Davis of RBC Capital Markets.
January 2014
USD/JPY: Watch double bottom at 101.65
Safe haven flows into the Yen after the EM sell-off means 101.65 is the level to watch for USD/JPY, says George Davis at RBC Capital Markets. Below this the corrective downtrend is resumed. A close above the 104.36 trendline will end this downtrend.
USD/ARS should top at 8.25-55
USD/ARS looks to be taking some time to consolidate the parabolic move near 8.00 but should look to top at around 8.25/55 over the next one to two months, says Rob Zukowski at 4Cast. A reversal should then see the market return to where it started the sell-off at 6.80/7.00.
BNP Paribas maintain bullish stance on US stocks
BNP Paribas has maintained a bullish outlook for the S&P500, despite recent declines, as the 100-day moving average remains unbroken and a significant support line. For their weekly coverage of equities as well as bonds, FX and commodities, read their full report.
Support remains for US despite bearish signals
Although short-term technicals continue to look bearish, major support levels remain for US stocks, according to Brian Larose at United-ICAP. Despite a case for a major topping pattern in the S&P, support will need to be broken at 1767-1762, 1744-1736, and 1681 for this to be confirmed.
Buy gold stocks over gold
Buying gold stocks is preferable to buying gold itself, says Ari Wald of Wolfe Research. Exhaustion in the gold/NYSE gold miners index means the ratio has now moved in favour of stocks. This signal is enhanced by bearish divergence in the weekly RSI.
Gold potential target at $1300
Gold should see improved sentiment and a slowdown in selling during Q1, according to Max Knudsen of ADS Securities. This year has seen the best period of buying in 15 months with the potential for prices to reach $1300. Knudsen also discusses rising sentiment in the platinum market.
Louis Capital Markets:
Trade ideas for 2014
Andy Dodd, head of technical research at Louis Capital Markets, presents his trade ideas for 2014, including analysis of the IBEX, Nikkei, FX and gold.
S&P/T-note vol ratio near record low
Riccardo Ronco of Aviate Global has noted that the VIX/MOVE ratio (S&P/T Note vol) has recently hit a low after moving in a well defined trading range over the last 20 years. This, he says, indicates that equity versus volatility will increase significantly in 2014.
EUR/USD: downside risks brewing
A close below 1.3526 would open the way for further declines to 1.3402 for EUR/USD, according to George Davis at RBC Capital Markets. The 200-day moving average at 1.3354 is a further test with resistance at 1.3634 and 1.3697 expected to attract more selling interest.