Despite any summer weakness, the Euro should strengthen towards year-end and into early 2018, thereby reasserting its upwards trend, says Jean-François Owczarczak, technical analyst at Management Joint Trust SA in Geneva.
Based on his company’s proprietary methodology – a system made up of oscillators, standard deviation envelopes and measures of volatility – Owczarczak thinks the Euro is close to completing the first leg of its upwards move. He thinks this first leg will top out sometime in late June or early July, and the Euro will then consolidate towards August, possibly losing between 3 and 6 percent in value against both the US dollar and Japanese Yen.
From mid-Summer onwards, however, Owczarczak expects the Euro to move up again towards 1.22 for EURUSD and 132 for EURJPY by late 2017 / early 2018. Against the Pound, his analysis implies the Euro has the potential to strengthen by between 5 and 10 percent.
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