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Winners Announced

Awardsmain
The Technical Analyst announced the winners and runners-up of the 2014 awards at its annual awards dinner that took place on April 24 at the Le Meridien Piccadilly Hotel, London W1.

Latest Research and Commentary

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DAX outlook cautious as 9800 approached

After bouncing off long-term support at 8900 in early August, the DAX is now approaching resistance at 9800 which is a warning sign for caution, say analysts at BNP Paribas. EURUSD remains in a downtrend with a medium-term target of 1.2750.
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Correction due for overbought Bunds

The strong rally in the Bund price this year has produced an overbought condition which will likely lead to a correction in the coming weeks, says Maxine Viemont at BNP Paribas. Meanwhile, the Nikkei stands poised for an upside breakout to target 20,000.
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10yr US Treasury yield to hold firm

Despite breaking below its May 2014 low, the 10-year US Treasury yield outlook for Q4 is stronger once 2.54% is breached, says analysts at 4CAST. Meanwhile, further losses are expected for EUR/USD following a downward break below its uptrend from July 2012.
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S&P bull run intact but possible sell-off scenario

With the S&P500 reaching a critical stage next year testing its equilibrium fair value level, two scenarios present themselves for the longer-term outlook, explains Peter Lee at UBS. One of these will mean a huge sell-off to around 1200 before the bull run continues. He also presents evidence for the continuation of the commodities super cycle.
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Equities

Nasdaq vs. 200 DMA bearish signal

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Negative divergence between the Nasdaq and the % distance from its 200-day moving average is replicating the pattern seen in 2007 before 25% fall in the index, says Riccardo Ronco at Aviate Global. 4300 remains the key support level for the Nasdaq in the face of falling market breadth.

S&P500 to resist September seasonals

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The S&P500 is above its 200-day moving average so historic prices suggest September seasonals should not impact the index this month, says Ari Wald at Oppenheimer. A continuing trend should see the index target 2080 in the weeks ahead.

Fixed Income

Southern Europe bonds reaching tops

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Spain, Italy and Portugal bond yields are too low and are poised to top, says Chris Williams at Societe Generale. The RSI for each market are showing extreme overbought conditions with significant trendlines also about to be tested.

Strategies and Techniques

Using news analytics for a carry trade strategy

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Saeed Amen, quantitative strategist at The Thalesians explains how news data analytics can be used to create a filter to alleviate period drawdowns in a G10 FX carry trade strategy. He finds that the filter increases risk adjusted returns to 0.84 compared with 0.47 for a long-only strategy.

FX

Cable to target 1.5790 and rebound

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After bouncing off its 42 year trend line at 1.7091, GBP/USD has is set to correct back to 1.582 in Q4 which may provide a good buying opportunity, says Chris Williams at Soc Gen. This should be supported by a significant RSI reading signalling oversold conditions in the cross.

Bounce for EUR/GBP but weakness remains

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The completion of a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern in EUR/GBP paves the way for a maximum multi-week target of 81.98/99, says Steve Jarvis at Tradermade. However, such a reversal will remain within the Aug 13 – Mar 14 bear channel meaning underling weakness remains.

Commodities & Energy

Rising USD puts pressure on Brent prices

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Long-term currency cycles is lending strength to the US dollar which in turn is pushing prices of Brent crude oil. The dollar’s 8 year cycle is due to top in 2016 and, as such, further declines in the oil price are to be expected. The longer-term target stands at 70.698.

Software & Technology

Ravenpack enhance news analytics product

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Ravenpack has launched RPNA 4.0, the latest version of its news analytics product. The new version now includes sentiment indicators and the ability to identify more than 2000 geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate events as part of a news analytics trading strategy.