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Winners Announced

Awardsmain
The Technical Analyst announced the winners and runners-up of the 2014 awards at its annual awards dinner that took place on April 24 at the Le Meridien Piccadilly Hotel, London W1.

Latest Research and Commentary

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DAX outlook cautious as 9800 approached

After bouncing off long-term support at 8900 in early August, the DAX is now approaching resistance at 9800 which is a warning sign for caution, say analysts at BNP Paribas. EURUSD remains in a downtrend with a medium-term target of 1.2750.
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Correction due for overbought Bunds

The strong rally in the Bund price this year has produced an overbought condition which will likely lead to a correction in the coming weeks, says Maxine Viemont at BNP Paribas. Meanwhile, the Nikkei stands poised for an upside breakout to target 20,000.
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10yr US Treasury yield to hold firm

Despite breaking below its May 2014 low, the 10-year US Treasury yield outlook for Q4 is stronger once 2.54% is breached, says analysts at 4CAST. Meanwhile, further losses are expected for EUR/USD following a downward break below its uptrend from July 2012.
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S&P bull run intact but possible sell-off scenario

With the S&P500 reaching a critical stage next year testing its equilibrium fair value level, two scenarios present themselves for the longer-term outlook, explains Peter Lee at UBS. One of these will mean a huge sell-off to around 1200 before the bull run continues. He also presents evidence for the continuation of the commodities super cycle.
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Equities

Buying opportunities from falls in S&P

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Sentiment and breadth measures means the short-term outlook for the S&P is negative presenting good buying opportunities, says Ari Wald at Oppenheimer. The longer-term outlook remains bullish however but buying

Credit spread widening reaches key milestone

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This week the 200-day MA of the BAML US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread turned higher for the first time in two and half years, a bearish sign for stocks according to Mike Sacchitello at Stone & McCarthy. Since 1997 there has been a close but negative correlation between the two indices.

Fixed Income

Outlook uncertain after fall in euro yields

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European bond yields continued to fall last week although the outlook for individual markets remains uncertain, says Chris Williams at Soc Gen. Some RSI readings, such as Germany 30 yr, suggest some yield charts may be oversold although the 10yr may be subject to more downside.

Strategies and Techniques

Using news analytics for a carry trade strategy

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Saeed Amen, quantitative strategist at The Thalesians explains how news data analytics can be used to create a filter to alleviate period drawdowns in a G10 FX carry trade strategy. He finds that the filter increases risk adjusted returns to 0.84 compared with 0.47 for a long-only strategy.

FX

EUR/USD targets 1.20 as decline resumes

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EUR/USD is now testing the March 2013 lows and should decline further targeting 1.20 in Q4, say analysts at 4CAST. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is expected to rally further into Q4 after completing a prolonged consolidation phase with targets at 112.55 and 114.65.

Commodities & Energy

Gold needs to hold 1220 to avoid more losses

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Despite strong resistance at 1228/29 gold has touched 1235 before reversing again and now needs to hold 1220/19 in the short-term to avoid a continuing decline says Jason Sen at DayTradeSignals. Should this break the metal should target 1215/4 and below this 1212 and 1208.

Software & Technology

Ravenpack enhance news analytics product

DowJones
Ravenpack has launched RPNA 4.0, the latest version of its news analytics product. The new version now includes sentiment indicators and the ability to identify more than 2000 geopolitical, macroeconomic and corporate events as part of a news analytics trading strategy.